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scenarios
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What are scenarios? Scenarios are stories about the future. Scenarios are images of the future, projected from multiple perspectives on the present and the past. These images intertwine the unpredictable with elements of relative certainty in coherent stories. Scenarios are 'a set of organised ways for us to dream effectively about our own future.' (P. Schwartz, 1991, p. 4) Scenarios help to perceive different futures in the present. They illuminate the future, but they do not predict it. This is very important to keep in mind. 'The best scenarios aren't necessarily those that come true; they are the ones that subvert expectations, providing deep insights into the changes happening all around us. The better scenarios are, the more they penetrate into the deepest possible understanding of the present.' (P. Mc Corduck and N. Ramsey, 1996, p.18) 'Scenarios are a tool for ordering one's perceptions about alternative future environments, in which decisions might be played out.' (P. Schwartz, 1991) History The use of scenarios as a tool for strategic decision making has its roots in the military. The U.S. Air Force used scenarios in war games. During and after WOII, scenario thinking was taken up by the RAND corporation: a research institute in the U.S.A. http://www.rand.org. Herman Kahn further developed the scenario method at the Hudson Institute http://www.hudson.org, which he established after his resignation from RAND. In his famous book The Year 2000 (1967), Kahn reworked scenarios to a tool for business strategy. From the 1960's onward, scenarios found their way into the corporate world. Shell was one of the first corporations, which started and continued to use scenarios. There's a famous story about Pierre Wack and Ted Newland, who introduced and used scenarios to warn Shell's executives for a possible dramatic rise in oil prices. Therewith, successfully preparing Shell for the oil-crisis of 1973. Both were members of the Group Planning division of Shell out of which originated Global Business Network (GBN) http://www.gbn.org. GBN is a network of - so called- 'remarkable people' and corporate members. GBN functions as an international think-tank and consultancy firm. One of its leading figures is Peter Schwartz who wrote one of the most famous books about scenario thinking and its history: The Art of the Longview (1991) Nowadays the scenario method is used in a wide variety of fields and professions. Not just for business strategy, but also in conflict mediation projects - among others in South Africa http://www.gbn.org/ and Colombia http://www.gbn.org/ for policy preparing processes as in this Dutch example: http://www.minvenw.nl/, for the analysis of the future of countries http://www.gbn.org/, for the analysis of the future of social issues, such as education, and for the film script of Deep Impact http://www.movie-page.com/1998/deep_impact.htm. METHOD HOW TO The Scenario Method The scenario method is a tool for coherent thinking about the future. Scenarios are developed in order to provide deeper understanding of present options for actions - and their consequences - in the light of possible future environments. 'Nobody can predict, therefore one should not try. The only relevant discussions about the future are those where we succeed from shifting from the question 'whether some-thing will happen' to the question: "What do we do if it happens?"' (A. de Geus) Note: Scenarios are not predictions of the future. The scenario method is based on the assumption that the future is unpredictable. In order to prepare for future possibilities it is necessary to consider uncertainties and make them part of your reasoning. This is in contrast with forecasts, which aim at finding the 'right' future. Forecasts neglect uncertainty and thus often fail when they are needed most, namely when sudden unforeseen changes occur. The world around us in infinitely complex. The scenario method aims at structurally incorporating uncertainty in our thinking, through the reduction of complexity to manageable proportions without ignoring alternatives by oversimplifying it. Using the form of stories to develop a number of consistent pathways into the future does this. 'Scenarios are made in order to increase understanding of current options in the light of possible futures.' (P.M. Schütte) How do you do it? Why and What? Before you start, you will have to ask yourself a number of questions. The most important of which is: · Why do I/we want to make scenarios? · What do I/we hope to achieve with it? ['Finding a balance between content & process'] · What are the objectives · Who is the self in relation to which we are composing scenarios? Once you’ve answered these questions, you will have to think about the design of your scenario project. Who to involve, etc. Once you have done this, too. It’s time to get going. Rules of Thumb First of all, there are a three ‘rules of thumb’ to which scenarios must conform: they must be relevant, novel and substantial.
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