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So far, these countries have been most successful in preparing small units assigned to NATO missions. In effect, one could argue that each Central European ally has “two militaries” – the small, better equipped and NATO compatible force, and the bulk of the armed forces that have some way to go to meet NATO standards. This imbalance needs to be corrected through the greater allocation of resources and through a personnel policy that would rotate officers and NCOs with experience in NATO-compatible units and in NATO missions to posts in the main armed forces. The Central Europeans could also consider further reductions in the size of their armed forces beyond what is currently being proposed. The goal should be to free additional resources in the inadequate defense budgets for reinvestment in their modernization programs, thereby, increasing the overall spending per soldier. Poland’s target for its armed forces is 150,000 personnel; Hungary plans reductions to 37,500 personnel; the Czech Republic envisions an army of approximately 40,000. These numbers could be drawn down further with commensurate increase in quality. For example, in the Polish case, it might be advisable to consider an army of 100,000, with a commensurate increase in training and readiness levels. The military modernization programs of the new allies need more focus in three areas: personnel policy, hardware modernization, and defense industry reform. In order to accelerate the incorporation of NATO standards, the Central Europeans should more aggressively seek to rotate officers trained in the West, or with Andrew Michta is the Mertie Willigar Buckman Professor of International Studies at Rhodes College, TN, and a Wilson Center Public Policy Scholar. Dr. Michta spoke together with Jeffrey Simon, Stephen Blank, and Sean Kay at an EES seminar on “NATO Membership Action Plan: A Journey to Where?” held on January 17, 2001. The following is a summary of Dr. Michta’s presentation. Not for citation or quotation without the consent of the author. As NATO considers its future course of action in anticipation of the 2002 MAP decision, the performance of the three 1999 entrants, Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, will be an important factor in tailoring allied policy. The broad question today is whether the new members have been producers or consumers of security, and to what extent and under what conditions they are likely to contribute to the Alliance in the future. Three areas deserve special emphasis: (1) the extent to which military reform and modernization has moved forward after 1999, (2) how the three new allies performed during the Kosovo campaign and its aftermath, and (3) what are the attitudes to NATO among those countries today. Military Modernization Programs Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic have considerable achievements in reforming their defense institutions. Much has been done in terms of institutional restructuring, civil-military relations, and NATO compatibility. Still, military modernization in Central Europe remains a work in progress. These countries could complete the key elements of their military modernization programs no sooner than 2005-2007; in The broad question today is whether the new members have been consumers or producers of security, and to what extent and under what conditions they are likely to contribute to the Alliance in the future.
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