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Macroeconomic Forecasts
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Macroeconomic Forecasts Kristen Tranmal Econ533 Yohannes Mariam May 7, 2003 Macroeconomic Forecasts Macroeconomic forecasts are means to interpret what has happened in the past and predict what will happen in the future based on current events and potential future events. The use of such forecasts must be done with caution, as they are just that –forecasts. The information provided below was obtained to provide You Called Cellular with information pertaining to the national economy as well as what is being predicted for the future. It is these forecasts that will be used to evaluate current operations along with future operations. Indicator Forecast 1 Forecast 2 Forecast 3 Average 2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004 Real GDP 2.7 3.6 3.1 4.7 1.9 3.3 2.56 3.86 CPI Inflation 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.4 3.0 3.0 2.53 3.27 Unemployment Rate 5.8 5.3 6.2 5.3 6.0 5.5 6.0 5.37 Interest Rates 5.0 6.0 4.66 6.88 5.0 6.0 4.89 6.29 Retail Trade 3.7 5.3 8.0 12.0 3.0 4.0 4.9 7.1 Investment Spending 4.8 5.3 2.2 1.9 1.9 4.6 2.97 3.93 Sources: Forecast 1 - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Forecast 2 - Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Forecast 3 - 2003-2004 Economic Forecast and Industry Outlook for California & Los Angeles Five County Area Including the National and International Setting Looking at this information it appears that all three forecasts believe that the real GDP will increase in the next year. Indications are for an increase in inflation, interest rates, investment spending, and retail trade. All three forecasts indicate a decrease in unemployment, even if only slightly. What does this mean for You Called Cellular?
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